The European Union is postponing the launch of the ETS2 system by one year, from 2027 to 2028. The obligation to surrender ETS2 emission allowances will thus first come into effect in 2029 for emissions released by fuel combustion in 2028. This change is part of the agreement on the revision of the European climate legal framework,[1] under which the EU has set a binding target to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by 90 % by 2040 compared to 1990 levels[2]. The ETS2 system will apply to CO2 emissions from fuels used in buildings and road transport.[3]
As you will be aware, the obligation to secure corresponding emission allowances for these emissions will rest with fuel suppliers. The new regulatory obligations will therefore not apply directly to end‑customers but primarily to entities at the top of the supply chain. End‑users must nevertheless expect that suppliers’ costs related to securing ETS2 allowances will be reflected in the prices of the affected commodities, particularly natural gas.
According to the EU, the postponement is intended to give Member States more time for preparation. It is nevertheless expected that auctions of ETS2 allowances will begin as early as 2027 and that obligations concerning monitoring, reporting and submission of relevant data to the competent authorities will remain unchanged (for selected entities, these obligations have been binding since 2025).[4]
For the sake of completeness, we would like to point out that the existing legislation already introduced a so-called safety brake mechanism, which allowed the launch of ETS2 to be postponed to 2028 in the event of exceptionally high gas prices or electricity prices in 2026. The practical significance of the current change is that 2028 is now the standard launch date for ETS2, rather than just a conditional backup option.[5]
Concurrently with the postponement of the ETS2 launch, adjustments are being made to the so‑called Market Stability Reserve, intended to contribute to a smoother start of the system’s operation. This mechanism enables the release of additional emission allowances onto the market if their price exceeds EUR 45 in 2020 prices. On this basis, up to 80 million additional allowances may be included in auctions from the start of trading until the end of 2029.[6]
Given the anticipated impact of ETS2 on fuel prices for buildings and road transport, the system has attracted criticism from several Member States and prompted a broader political debate about the social and economic implications of climate regulation. The adopted amendments can therefore be regarded as a compromise—one that preserves the EU’s climate objectives while seeking to ease concerns about the price effects of ETS2 by postponing its introduction and adjusting its stabilisation mechanisms.
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